In many cases, the biggest spenders (e.g., Pfizer, Amgen, BMS, and AbbVie) are those with large upcoming LOEs.

BMS and AbbVie are good examples - BMS is facing LOEs on Opdivo and Eliquis this decade, while AbbVie's top-selling drug Humira began facing competition last year and has already seen sales drop a by a third from peak.

Yet in other cases, M&A is more opportunistic:

Pfizer used its bumper covid-related earnings to acquire ADC powerhouse Seagen, while Lilly and Novo are more active thanks to their strong GLP-1 related earnings.

Meanwhile, several of the largest companies, like Novartis, AstraZeneca, and Sanofi did relatively little M&A.

Part of the likely reason is those companies face a more gradual patent cliff than others, and have strong assets with many years of growth ahead.

Regardless of the merits of each individual deal, one thing is clear: the industry needs to ensure that the coming wave of M&A to address looming LOEs doesn't result in overpriced deals that hamper returns in the long run.